A political and ideological conflict between Ethiopia and the northern region of Tigray has escalated into a terrifying civil war that threatens to dismantle an already fragile nation. On November 4th, Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister of Ethiopia declared war against the northern Tigray region, which borders on Eritrea and Sudan, and the governing party, the TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front). Ironically, this is the same man who put himself forward as a peacemaker and reformer, winning the Nobel Peace Prize just last year, for getting in a peace deal between his country and Eritrea.

 

This war is just a continuation of a much more violent repression that Abiy began in Oromia, Walatia and Sidama against those who resisted his ideals and vision. But what does Tigray have to do with all of this? Tigrayans have been a center of power and influence, and the most potent force in a multi-ethnic coalition, successfully controlling the government for almost 30 years now.

They’re not a lot though, only 6 million out of the 110 million in Africa’s second-most populous country.  So, it presents a pretty big challenge to the PM’s striking vision of “Making Ethiopia Great Again” or MEGA. Sound familiar? 

In addition to Tigray being an autonomous territory with control over its borders, it is a battle-hardened region with well-trained troops and access to Ethiopia’s military weaponry.

Although Abiy’s government is trying to tell the world that this war is a ‘law enforcement operation’, the fierce battles fought over the last few weeks involve fighter jets, tanks and armored personnel carriers make that claim seem half-witted.

 

He has declared assault on the regional capital, Mekelle, and says he will try not to hurt civilians and urges them to stay at home. However the people are living in fear and have been forced out of their quarters, with no escape as troops have recently been deployed along the Ethiopian-Sudanese border to reduce outflux of crossing people. More than 40,000 people have fled since the war began. The TPLF seem to be taking  comparatively better care of their people as they mobilize them and dig trenches, equipping almost all of them with rifles for protection.

 

The UN warns us of possible war crimes if they go ahead, including violations of international human rights laws. Now Abiy wants to implement the third phase of his plan, which includes ‘bringing justice without harm’ which will be hard to carry out if it involves artillery.  The African Union has sent three negotiators to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, but they have rejected all mediation attempts. There are concerns that even if Abiy achieves his aim of forcing out the TPLF and imposing federal authority on Tigray, the violence will continue due to its relevance. 

 

And as a Tigrayan scholar quotes “the world and the UNSC in particular need to demand cessation of the fighting because there wouldn’t be winners, only losers.”

 

As we watch the world’s leaders change and take up new measures, the very claim of democracy is questioned by their actions.